Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Portsmouth vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2024

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
Preview
14:00
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
4/3/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 40Fratton Park
Big match
39%
Portsmouth
model favours
39%26%36%

Portsmouth sit 18, Middlesbrough 5 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Portsmouth39%
×Draw26%
Middlesbrough36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.41
Middlesbrough
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.55
Middlesbrough
1.56

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.14
Middlesbrough
1.27

finishing

Portsmouth-0.39scores less
Middlesbrough-0.20scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Middlesbrough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
64%
Portsmouth or Middlesbrough
74%
Draw or Middlesbrough
61%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
18%
Middlesbrough wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
76%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
41%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
17%
Middlesbrough 1+ goals
74%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
39%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
52%
Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.14 · 19 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.55 + Middlesbrough defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.41

Middlesbrough attack 1.56 + Portsmouth defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Portsmouth scores more
39%
level
26%
Middlesbrough scores more
36%

Portsmouth at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Portsmouth
Balanced
Middlesbrough
Attack-heavy
47%Possession58%
72%Pass accuracy84%
11.9Shots16.0
1.20xGBiggest gap1.63
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PortsmouthMiddlesbrough

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Portsmouth
1
Draws
1
Middlesbrough
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 60%
1–01–02–12–21–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Portsmouth
LWDWL
Middlesbrough
LDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Portsmouth host Middlesbrough

April 3, 2027: Portsmouth take on Middlesbrough in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Portsmouth host Middlesbrough at Fratton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.