Middlesbrough 2–2 Portsmouth: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Portsmouth

T. Conway 90' (pen)

M. Clarke 11'

C. Saydee 25', 2'

8/24/2024

Championship · Round 3Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Middlesbrough56%

×Draw25%

Portsmouth19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddlesbroughExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.82

Middlesbrough

1.60

Portsmouth

0.82

Middlesbrough creates 95% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 21 away

1.70

creates per match

0.89

0.75

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Middlesbrough

1.70

Portsmouth

0.89

allows per match

Middlesbrough

0.75

Portsmouth

1.51

+0.01on par

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Middlesbrough+0.01on par

Portsmouth+0.25scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw

81%

Middlesbrough or Portsmouth

75%

Draw or Portsmouth

44%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

30%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

80%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

47%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

22%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

56%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

20%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

74%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.51 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.70 + Portsmouth defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.60

Portsmouth attack 0.89 + Middlesbrough defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Middlesbrough scores more

56%

level

25%

Portsmouth scores more

19%

Middlesbrough at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

I. Jones

Middlesbrough · M

8.3

Match Events

2'

11'

25'

42'

43'

53'

H. Blair← E. Sørensen

55'

57'

64'

65'

70'

80'

81'

D. Barlaser← A. Morris

81'

M. Hamilton← L. Engel

82'

O. Moxon← A. Dozzell

82'

M. Ritchie← C. Lang

90'

T. ConwayPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiddlesbroughPortsmouth

Overview

71%Possession29%

30Total Shots7

2.90Expected Goals (xG)1.05

15Corners2

10Fouls15

Shots

30Total Shots7

7On Target3

10Off Target3

13Blocked1

19Inside Box5

11Outside Box2

Passing

71%Possession29%

594Total Passes252

514Accurate Passes177

87%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

0.78Goals Prevented0.78

Discipline

10Fouls15

0Yellow Cards5

2Offsides1