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Portsmouth vs Leyton Orient — League One 2018

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
1/13/2024League OneLeague One · Round 28Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Portsmouth47%
×Draw25%
Leyton Orient28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.57
Leyton Orient
1.17

Portsmouth creates 34% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 71 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.72
Leyton Orient
1.32

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.01
Leyton Orient
1.42

finishing

Portsmouth+0.00on par
Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
72%
Portsmouth or Leyton Orient
75%
Draw or Leyton Orient
53%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
24%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
79%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
46%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
21%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
69%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
33%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
62%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.01 · 137 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.42 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.72 + Leyton Orient defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.57

Leyton Orient attack 1.32 + Portsmouth defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Portsmouth scores more
47%
level
25%
Leyton Orient scores more
28%

Portsmouth at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portsmouth vs Leyton Orient

Leyton Orient beat Portsmouth 3-0 in League One on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.