Portsmouth 1–1 Hull City: Result & Stats

Portsmouth

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hull City

C. Saydee 55'

M. Crooks 18'

5/3/2025

Championship · Round 46Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Portsmouth48%

×Draw25%

Hull City27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortsmouthExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.16

Portsmouth

1.61

Hull City

1.16

Portsmouth creates 39% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 41 away

1.63

creates per match

1.18

1.14

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Portsmouth

1.63

Hull City

1.18

allows per match

Portsmouth

1.14

Hull City

1.59

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Portsmouth-0.39scores less

Hull City+0.02on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw

73%

Portsmouth or Hull City

75%

Draw or Hull City

52%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+

25%

Hull City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals

80%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

48%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

22%

Hull City 1+ goals

69%

Hull City 2+ goals

32%

Hull City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

63%

Hull City (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.14 · 17 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.59 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.63 + Hull City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.61

Hull City attack 1.18 + Portsmouth defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Portsmouth scores more

48%

level

25%

Hull City scores more

27%

Portsmouth at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

M. Ritchie

Portsmouth · M

7.9

Match Events

13'

Sean McLoughlin

16'

M. Ritchie← H. Blair

18'

M. Crooks↳ João Pedro

44'

Matt Crooks

46'

C. Saydee← C. Lang

55'

C. Saydee↳ M. Pack

62'

R. Poole← C. Shaughnessy

62'

K. Palmer← J. Gelhardt

62'

Lincoln← A. Kamara

71'

I. Hayden← M. Pack

71'

M. Burstow← K. Joseph

72'

A. Dozzell← F. Potts

80'

A. Jones← João Pedro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortsmouthHull

Overview

64%Possession36%

11Total Shots11

0.78Expected Goals (xG)2.28

5Corners5

7Fouls18

Shots

11Total Shots11

2On Target4

4Off Target1

5Blocked6

7Inside Box8

4Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

386Total Passes220

299Accurate Passes122

77%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

-0.29Goals Prevented-0.29

Discipline

7Fouls18

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2