Portsmouth 3–3 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Portsmouth

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Fleetwood Town

2/26/2022

League One · Round 36Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Portsmouth48%

×Draw25%

Fleetwood Town26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortsmouthExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.09

Portsmouth

1.57

Fleetwood Town

1.09

Portsmouth creates 44% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 134 away

1.72

creates per match

1.18

1.01

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Portsmouth

1.72

Fleetwood Town

1.18

allows per match

Portsmouth

1.01

Fleetwood Town

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portsmouth+0.00on par

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw

74%

Portsmouth or Fleetwood Town

75%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

52%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+

25%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals

79%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

46%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

21%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

66%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

30%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

65%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.01 · 137 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.43 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.72 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.57

Fleetwood Town attack 1.18 + Portsmouth defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Portsmouth scores more

48%

level

25%

Fleetwood Town scores more

26%

Portsmouth at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff