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Portsmouth vs Exeter City — League One 2018

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Exeter City
Exeter City
1/21/2023League OneLeague One · Round 28Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Portsmouth52%
×Draw25%
Exeter City24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.65
Exeter City
1.03

Portsmouth creates 60% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 93 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.72
Exeter City
1.05

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.01
Exeter City
1.58

finishing

Portsmouth+0.00on par
Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
76%
Portsmouth or Exeter City
75%
Draw or Exeter City
48%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
28%
Exeter City wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
81%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
49%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
23%
Exeter City 1+ goals
64%
Exeter City 2+ goals
28%
Exeter City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
69%
Exeter City (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.01 · 137 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.58 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.72 + Exeter City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.65

Exeter City attack 1.05 + Portsmouth defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Portsmouth scores more
52%
level
25%
Exeter City scores more
24%

Portsmouth at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portsmouth vs Exeter City

Portsmouth beat Exeter City 2-0 in League One on January 21, 2023.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.