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Portsmouth vs Cheltenham — League One 2018

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
2/25/2023League OneLeague One · Round 34Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Portsmouth53%
×Draw24%
Cheltenham23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.69
Cheltenham
1.01

Portsmouth creates 67% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 69 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.72
Cheltenham
1.01

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.01
Cheltenham
1.67

finishing

Portsmouth+0.00on par
Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
77%
Portsmouth or Cheltenham
76%
Draw or Cheltenham
47%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
29%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
82%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
50%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
24%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
64%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
27%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
70%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.01 · 137 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.67 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.72 + Cheltenham defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Portsmouth defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Portsmouth scores more
53%
level
24%
Cheltenham scores more
23%

Portsmouth at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Portsmouth 4–0 Cheltenham

Portsmouth beat Cheltenham 4-0 in League One on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.