Portsmouth 1–0 Carlisle: Result & Stats

Portsmouth

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Carlisle

10/21/2023

League One · Round 14Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Portsmouth55%

×Draw24%

Carlisle21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortsmouthExpected goals in this matchCarlisle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.94

Portsmouth

1.71

Carlisle

0.94

Portsmouth creates 82% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 23 away

1.72

creates per match

0.87

1.01

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Portsmouth

1.72

Carlisle

0.87

allows per match

Portsmouth

1.01

Carlisle

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portsmouth+0.00on par

Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Carlisle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw

79%

Portsmouth or Carlisle

76%

Draw or Carlisle

45%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+

31%

Carlisle wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals

82%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

51%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

24%

Carlisle 1+ goals

61%

Carlisle 2+ goals

24%

Carlisle 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

73%

Carlisle (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.01 · 137 matches

Carlisle away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.72 + Carlisle defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.71

Carlisle attack 0.87 + Portsmouth defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Portsmouth scores more

55%

level

24%

Carlisle scores more

21%

Portsmouth at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff