Portsmouth 4–1 Birmingham: Result & Stats

Portsmouth

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Birmingham

M. Futacs 90+2'

K. Etuhu 77'

D. Norris 59'

C. Maguire 54'

N. Zigic 7'

3/20/2012

Championship · Round 38Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Portsmouth44%

×Draw28%

Birmingham28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortsmouthExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.98

Portsmouth

1.29

Birmingham

0.98

Portsmouth creates 32% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 13 away

1.45

creates per match

0.81

1.15

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Portsmouth

1.45

Birmingham

0.81

allows per match

Portsmouth

1.15

Birmingham

1.13

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Portsmouth-0.39scores less

Birmingham-0.19scores less

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw

72%

Portsmouth or Birmingham

72%

Draw or Birmingham

56%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+

20%

Birmingham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals

72%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

37%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

14%

Birmingham 1+ goals

62%

Birmingham 2+ goals

26%

Birmingham 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

61%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.15 · 31 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.13 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.45 + Birmingham defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Birmingham attack 0.81 + Portsmouth defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Portsmouth scores more

44%

level

28%

Birmingham scores more

28%

Portsmouth at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

N. Zigic↳ M. King

54'

C. Maguire↳ G. Halford

59'

D. Norris↳ G. Halford

65'

W. Elliott← P. Ramage

73'

K. Etuhu← S. Allan

77'

K. Etuhu↳ C. Maguire

83'

Pablo Ibáñez← K. Fahey

87'

A. Rooney← N. Zigic

89'

M. Futacs← C. Maguire

90'

A. Harris← D. Norris

90+2'

M. Futacs↳ G. Halford

Portsmouth

Birmingham

1

Myhill

3

Murphy

8

N'Daw

6

▼

24

4

7

18

▼

Fahey

11

Townsend

19

⚽

▼

Zigic

9

A

1

26

3

5

2

15

A

Halford

19

⚽

▼

Norris

20

Thorne

16

▼

Allan

22

⚽A

▼

Maguire

11

Varney

73'▲K. Etuhu←▼S. Allan

89'▲M. Futacs←▼C. Maguire

90'▲A. Harris←▼D. Norris

Portsmouth substitutes

14Etuhu9Futacs17Harris25Mwaruwari31Webster

65'▲W. Elliott←▼P. Ramage

83'▲Pablo Ibáñez←▼K. Fahey

87'▲A. Rooney←▼N. Zigic

Birmingham substitutes

15Elliott5Ibáñez17Rooney13Doyle14Gomis