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Portsmouth vs Accrington ST — League One 2018

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
4/22/2023League OneLeague One · Round 44Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Portsmouth54%
×Draw24%
Accrington ST22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.71
Accrington ST
0.98

Portsmouth creates 74% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 110 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.72
Accrington ST
0.95

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.01
Accrington ST
1.70

finishing

Portsmouth+0.00on par
Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
78%
Portsmouth or Accrington ST
76%
Draw or Accrington ST
46%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
30%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
82%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
51%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
24%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
62%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
26%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
72%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.01 · 137 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.70 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.72 + Accrington ST defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.71

Accrington ST attack 0.95 + Portsmouth defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Portsmouth scores more
54%
level
24%
Accrington ST scores more
22%

Portsmouth at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portsmouth vs Accrington ST

Portsmouth beat Accrington ST 1-0 in League One on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.