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Portogruaro vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Portogruaro
Portogruaro
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
M. Zupperdoni 39'
C. Ibe 5'
4/27/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 37Stadio Pier Giovanni Mecchia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Portogruaro38%
×Draw28%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portogruaro
1.19
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 19 away

creates per match

Portogruaro
1.11
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
0.84

allows per match

Portogruaro
1.37
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.26

finishing

Portogruaro+0.00on par
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portogruaro ↓

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Portogruaro or draw
66%
Portogruaro or Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
72%
Draw or Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
62%

Winning margin

Portogruaro wins by 2+
16%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Portogruaro 1+ goals
70%
Portogruaro 2+ goals
33%
Portogruaro 3+ goals
12%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1+ goals
67%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 2+ goals
30%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Portogruaro (draw refunded)
53%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portogruaro at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.37 · 70 matches

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portogruaro attack 1.11 + Virtus Ciserano Bergamo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo attack 0.84 + Portogruaro defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Portogruaro scores more
38%
level
28%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo scores more
34%

Portogruaro at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Portogruaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
C. Ibe
39'
M. Zupperdoni

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portogruaro vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

Portogruaro and Virtus Ciserano Bergamo drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on April 27, 2025.

Goals: C. Ibe (5'), M. Zupperdoni (39').

The match was played at Stadio Pier Giovanni Mecchia in Portogruaro.