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Portogruaro vs Treviso — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Portogruaro
Portogruaro
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Treviso
Treviso
A. Khiari 19', 11'
L. Scotto 75', 58', 2' (pen)
F. Serena 13'
9/7/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 1Stadio Pier Giovanni Mecchia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Portogruaro27%
×Draw26%
Treviso46%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portogruaro
1.06
Treviso
1.46

Treviso creates 38% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 53 away

creates per match

Portogruaro
1.11
Treviso
1.55

allows per match

Portogruaro
1.37
Treviso
1.00

finishing

Portogruaro+0.00on par
Treviso+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portogruaro ↓

Treviso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Portogruaro or draw
54%
Portogruaro or Treviso
74%
Draw or Treviso
73%

Winning margin

Portogruaro wins by 2+
10%
Treviso wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Portogruaro 1+ goals
65%
Portogruaro 2+ goals
29%
Portogruaro 3+ goals
9%
Treviso 1+ goals
77%
Treviso 2+ goals
43%
Treviso 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Portogruaro (draw refunded)
37%
Treviso (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portogruaro at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.37 · 70 matches

Treviso away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.00 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portogruaro attack 1.11 + Treviso defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Treviso attack 1.55 + Portogruaro defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Portogruaro scores more
27%
level
26%
Treviso scores more
46%

Treviso at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Treviso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
L. ScottoPenalty
11'
A. Khiari
13'
F. Serena
19'
A. Khiari
58'
L. Scotto
75'
L. Scotto

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portogruaro vs Treviso

Treviso beat Portogruaro 4-2 in Serie D - Girone C on September 7, 2025.

Goals: L. Scotto (2' pen, 58', 75'), A. Khiari (11', 19'), F. Serena (13').

The match was played at Stadio Pier Giovanni Mecchia in Portogruaro.