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Portogruaro vs Dolomiti Bellunesi — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Portogruaro
Portogruaro
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dolomiti Bellunesi
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1/25/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 24Stadio Pier Giovanni Mecchia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Portogruaro31%
×Draw26%
Dolomiti Bellunesi43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portogruaro
1.17
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.42

Dolomiti Bellunesi creates 21% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 70 away

creates per match

Portogruaro
1.11
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.47

allows per match

Portogruaro
1.37
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.23

finishing

Portogruaro+0.00on par
Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portogruaro ↓

Dolomiti Bellunesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Portogruaro or draw
57%
Portogruaro or Dolomiti Bellunesi
74%
Draw or Dolomiti Bellunesi
69%

Winning margin

Portogruaro wins by 2+
13%
Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Portogruaro 1+ goals
69%
Portogruaro 2+ goals
33%
Portogruaro 3+ goals
11%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals
76%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals
41%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Portogruaro (draw refunded)
42%
Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portogruaro at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.37 · 70 matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portogruaro attack 1.11 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.47 + Portogruaro defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Portogruaro scores more
31%
level
26%
Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more
43%

Dolomiti Bellunesi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dolomiti Bellunesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Portogruaro 1–0 Dolomiti Bellunesi

Portogruaro beat Dolomiti Bellunesi 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on January 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Pier Giovanni Mecchia in Portogruaro.