Portogruaro 6–1 Breno: Result & Stats

Portogruaro

FT

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Breno

D. Rosso 81'

R. Ejesi 72', 60'

S. Montalto 66'

A. Berna 45+1' (OG)

L. Nicoloso 36'

D. Vita 5'

3/3/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 25Stadio Pier Giovanni Mecchia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Portogruaro38%

×Draw26%

Breno36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortogruaroExpected goals in this matchBreno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.27

Portogruaro

1.32

Breno

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 17 away

1.11

creates per match

1.18

1.37

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Portogruaro

1.11

Breno

1.18

allows per match

Portogruaro

1.37

Breno

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portogruaro+0.00on par

Breno+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portogruaro ↓

Breno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Portogruaro or draw

64%

Portogruaro or Breno

74%

Draw or Breno

62%

Winning margin

Portogruaro wins by 2+

17%

Breno wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Portogruaro 1+ goals

73%

Portogruaro 2+ goals

38%

Portogruaro 3+ goals

15%

Breno 1+ goals

72%

Breno 2+ goals

36%

Breno 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Portogruaro (draw refunded)

52%

Breno (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portogruaro at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.37 · 70 matches

Breno away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portogruaro attack 1.11 + Breno defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.32

Breno attack 1.18 + Portogruaro defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Portogruaro scores more

38%

level

26%

Breno scores more

36%

Portogruaro at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Portogruaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

D. Vita

36'

L. Nicoloso

45+1'

A. BernaOwn goal

60'

R. Ejesi

66'

S. Montalto

72'

R. Ejesi

81'

D. Rosso

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff