Porto Vitória 3–3 Rio Branco-VN: Result & Stats

Porto Vitória

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Rio Branco-VN

Luiz Henrique 87'

Thallyson 80' (pen)

Marcudinho 62'

Gil Mineiro 45+6'

Mineiro 43', 9'

6/20/2026

Copa Espírito Santo · Semi-finalsEstadio Kleber Andrade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Porto Vitória65%

×Draw20%

Rio Branco-VN15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Porto VitóriaExpected goals in this matchRio Branco-VN

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.89

Porto Vitória

2.10

Rio Branco-VN

0.89

Porto Vitória creates 136% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 12 away

2.70

creates per match

0.92

0.85

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Porto Vitória

2.70

Rio Branco-VN

0.92

allows per match

Porto Vitória

0.85

Rio Branco-VN

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Porto Vitória+0.00on par

Rio Branco-VN+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porto Vitória ↓

Rio Branco-VN →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Porto Vitória or draw

85%

Porto Vitória or Rio Branco-VN

80%

Draw or Rio Branco-VN

35%

Winning margin

Porto Vitória wins by 2+

41%

Rio Branco-VN wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Porto Vitória 1+ goals

88%

Porto Vitória 2+ goals

62%

Porto Vitória 3+ goals

35%

Rio Branco-VN 1+ goals

59%

Rio Branco-VN 2+ goals

22%

Rio Branco-VN 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Porto Vitória (draw refunded)

81%

Rio Branco-VN (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Porto Vitória at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches

Rio Branco-VN away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Porto Vitória attack 2.70 + Rio Branco-VN defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.10

Rio Branco-VN attack 0.92 + Porto Vitória defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Porto Vitória scores more

65%

level

20%

Rio Branco-VN scores more

15%

Porto Vitória at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Porto Vitória will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

43'

45+6'

62'

80'

ThallysonPenalty

87'

Luiz Henrique

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff