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Porto Vitória vs CFRJ / Maricá — Serie D 2026

Porto Vitória
Porto Vitória
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CFRJ / Maricá
CFRJ / Maricá
6/14/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Kleber José de Andrade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Porto Vitória49%
×Draw28%
CFRJ / Maricá23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Porto Vitória
1.33
CFRJ / Maricá
0.81

Porto Vitória creates 64% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

Porto Vitória
1.29
CFRJ / Maricá
0.92

allows per match

Porto Vitória
0.71
CFRJ / Maricá
1.38

finishing

Porto Vitória+0.00on par
CFRJ / Maricá+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porto Vitória ↓

CFRJ / Maricá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Porto Vitória or draw
77%
Porto Vitória or CFRJ / Maricá
72%
Draw or CFRJ / Maricá
51%

Winning margin

Porto Vitória wins by 2+
23%
CFRJ / Maricá wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Porto Vitória 1+ goals
74%
Porto Vitória 2+ goals
38%
Porto Vitória 3+ goals
15%
CFRJ / Maricá 1+ goals
56%
CFRJ / Maricá 2+ goals
19%
CFRJ / Maricá 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Porto Vitória (draw refunded)
68%
CFRJ / Maricá (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Porto Vitória at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

CFRJ / Maricá away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Porto Vitória attack 1.29 + CFRJ / Maricá defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

CFRJ / Maricá attack 0.92 + Porto Vitória defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Porto Vitória scores more
49%
level
28%
CFRJ / Maricá scores more
23%

Porto Vitória at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Porto Vitória will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Porto
CFRJ
João Burse
Manager: João Burse
Reinaldo Oliveira
Manager: Reinaldo Oliveira

Serie D: Porto Vitória 0–0 CFRJ / Maricá

Porto Vitória and CFRJ / Maricá drew 0-0 in Serie D on June 14, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Kleber José de Andrade in Cariacica.