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Porto Velho vs Galvez — Serie D 2026

Porto Velho
Porto Velho
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Galvez
Galvez
Jeferson 60'
Yan Philippe 58', 27'
Luan Viana 10'
4/12/2026Serie DSerie D · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Porto Velho54%
×Draw22%
Galvez23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Porto Velho
1.94
Galvez
1.20

Porto Velho creates 62% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 25 away

creates per match

Porto Velho
1.91
Galvez
1.28

allows per match

Porto Velho
1.11
Galvez
1.96

finishing

Porto Velho+0.00on par
Galvez+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porto Velho ↓

Galvez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Porto Velho or draw
77%
Porto Velho or Galvez
78%
Draw or Galvez
46%

Winning margin

Porto Velho wins by 2+
32%
Galvez wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Porto Velho 1+ goals
86%
Porto Velho 2+ goals
58%
Porto Velho 3+ goals
30%
Galvez 1+ goals
70%
Galvez 2+ goals
34%
Galvez 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Porto Velho (draw refunded)
70%
Galvez (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Porto Velho at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

Galvez away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Porto Velho attack 1.91 + Galvez defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.94

Galvez attack 1.28 + Porto Velho defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Porto Velho scores more
54%
level
22%
Galvez scores more
23%

Porto Velho at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Porto Velho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
Luan Viana
27'
Yan Philippe
58'
Yan Philippe
60'
Jeferson
Porto
Galvez
Paulo Pereira
Manager: Paulo Pereira
Celio
Manager: Celio

Serie D: Porto Velho 4–0 Galvez

Porto Velho beat Galvez 4-0 in Serie D on April 12, 2026.

Goals: Luan Viana (10'), Yan Philippe (27', 58'), Jeferson (60').