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Porto U19 vs Antwerp U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Porto U19
Porto U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Antwerp U19
Antwerp U19
11/7/2023UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 4Estádio Dr. Jorge Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Porto U1966%
×Draw18%
Antwerp U1916%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Porto U19
2.44
Antwerp U19
1.13

Porto U19 creates 116% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 3 away

creates per match

Porto U19
2.20
Antwerp U19
1.00

allows per match

Porto U19
1.25
Antwerp U19
2.67

finishing

Porto U19+0.00on par
Antwerp U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porto U19 ↓

Antwerp U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Porto U19 or draw
84%
Porto U19 or Antwerp U19
82%
Draw or Antwerp U19
34%

Winning margin

Porto U19 wins by 2+
44%
Antwerp U19 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Porto U19 1+ goals
91%
Porto U19 2+ goals
70%
Porto U19 3+ goals
43%
Antwerp U19 1+ goals
68%
Antwerp U19 2+ goals
31%
Antwerp U19 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Porto U19 (draw refunded)
80%
Antwerp U19 (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Porto U19 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Antwerp U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Porto U19 attack 2.20 + Antwerp U19 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.44

Antwerp U19 attack 1.00 + Porto U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Porto U19 scores more
66%
level
18%
Antwerp U19 scores more
16%

Porto U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Porto U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Porto U19 vs Antwerp U19

Porto U19 beat Antwerp U19 3-1 in UEFA Youth League on November 7, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Jorge Sampaio in Pedroso, Vila Nova de Gaia.