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Porto Football U20 vs Palmeiras U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Porto Football U20
Porto Football U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Palmeiras U20
Palmeiras U20
Unknown 52'
7/5/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Porto Football U2022%
×Draw26%
Palmeiras U2052%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Porto Football U20
0.87
Palmeiras U20
1.51

Palmeiras U20 creates 74% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 27 away

creates per match

Porto Football U20
1.00
Palmeiras U20
2.15

allows per match

Porto Football U20
0.88
Palmeiras U20
0.74

finishing

Porto Football U20+0.00on par
Palmeiras U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 55Yes: 4555%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porto Football U20 ↓

Palmeiras U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Porto Football U20 or draw
48%
Porto Football U20 or Palmeiras U20
74%
Draw or Palmeiras U20
78%

Winning margin

Porto Football U20 wins by 2+
7%
Palmeiras U20 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Porto Football U20 1+ goals
58%
Porto Football U20 2+ goals
22%
Porto Football U20 3+ goals
6%
Palmeiras U20 1+ goals
78%
Palmeiras U20 2+ goals
44%
Palmeiras U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Porto Football U20 (draw refunded)
29%
Palmeiras U20 (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Porto Football U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Palmeiras U20 away — creates 2.15, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Porto Football U20 attack 1.00 + Palmeiras U20 defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.87

Palmeiras U20 attack 2.15 + Porto Football U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Porto Football U20 scores more
22%
level
26%
Palmeiras U20 scores more
52%

Palmeiras U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Palmeiras U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Porto Football U20 0–1 Palmeiras U20

Palmeiras U20 beat Porto Football U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on July 5, 2026.

Goals: ? (52').