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Porto BA vs Jacobinense — Baiano - 2 2019

Porto BA
Porto BA
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Jacobinense
Jacobinense
7/14/2024Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 9Estádio Municipal Agnaldo Bento Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Porto BA55%
×Draw26%
Jacobinense19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Porto BA
1.52
Jacobinense
0.79

Porto BA creates 92% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Porto BA
1.33
Jacobinense
0.90

allows per match

Porto BA
0.67
Jacobinense
1.70

finishing

Porto BA+0.00on par
Jacobinense+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porto BA ↓

Jacobinense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Porto BA or draw
81%
Porto BA or Jacobinense
74%
Draw or Jacobinense
45%

Winning margin

Porto BA wins by 2+
28%
Jacobinense wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Porto BA 1+ goals
78%
Porto BA 2+ goals
45%
Porto BA 3+ goals
20%
Jacobinense 1+ goals
55%
Jacobinense 2+ goals
19%
Jacobinense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Porto BA (draw refunded)
74%
Jacobinense (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Porto BA at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Jacobinense away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Porto BA attack 1.33 + Jacobinense defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.52

Jacobinense attack 0.90 + Porto BA defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Porto BA scores more
55%
level
26%
Jacobinense scores more
19%

Porto BA at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Porto BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Porto BA vs Jacobinense

Porto BA beat Jacobinense 2-0 in Baiano - 2 on July 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Agnaldo Bento Santos in Porto Seguro, Bahia.