Portmore United vs Vere United — Premier League 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 76+ matches
Portmore United53%
Vere United20%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Portmore United creates 88% more chances
Season form · 100 home / 76 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under63
- Over37
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Portmore United ↓
Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Portmore United at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.78 · 100 matches
Vere United away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.67 · 76 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Portmore United attack 1.19 + Vere United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.43
Vere United attack 0.74 + Portmore United defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.76
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
Portmore United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "Portmore United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Waterhouse
Mount Pleasant AcademyPortmore United
Humble Lions
Tivoli Gardens
Dunbeholden
Arnett Gardens
Cavalier
Harbour View
Molynes United
UWIVere UnitedIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Portmore United host Vere United on Sunday, 16 March 2025 at 20:30. The match is part of the Premier League 2019/2020 season.
Premier League: Portmore United 1–0 Vere United
Portmore United beat Vere United 1-0 in Premier League on March 16, 2025.
The match was played at Ferdie Neita Sports Complex in Portmore.