Portmore United 4–0 Faulkland: Result & Stats

Portmore United

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Faulkland

3/26/2023

Premier League · Round 20Ferdie Neita Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Portmore United60%

×Draw24%

Faulkland16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portmore UnitedExpected goals in this matchFaulkland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.70

Portmore United

1.64

Faulkland

0.70

Portmore United creates 134% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 13 away

1.19

creates per match

0.62

0.78

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Portmore United

1.19

Faulkland

0.62

allows per match

Portmore United

0.78

Faulkland

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portmore United+0.00on par

Faulkland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portmore United ↓

Faulkland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Portmore United or draw

84%

Portmore United or Faulkland

76%

Draw or Faulkland

40%

Winning margin

Portmore United wins by 2+

33%

Faulkland wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Portmore United 1+ goals

81%

Portmore United 2+ goals

49%

Portmore United 3+ goals

23%

Faulkland 1+ goals

50%

Faulkland 2+ goals

16%

Faulkland 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Portmore United (draw refunded)

79%

Faulkland (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portmore United at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.78 · 100 matches

Faulkland away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portmore United attack 1.19 + Faulkland defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.64

Faulkland attack 0.62 + Portmore United defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Portmore United scores more

60%

level

24%

Faulkland scores more

16%

Portmore United at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Portmore United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff