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Portmore United vs Dunbeholden — Premier League 2019

Portmore United
Portmore United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dunbeholden
Dunbeholden
2/4/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Ferdie Neita Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Portmore United45%
×Draw29%
Dunbeholden26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portmore United
1.28
Dunbeholden
0.90

Portmore United creates 42% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 101 away

creates per match

Portmore United
1.19
Dunbeholden
1.02

allows per match

Portmore United
0.78
Dunbeholden
1.37

finishing

Portmore United+0.00on par
Dunbeholden+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portmore United ↓

Dunbeholden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Portmore United or draw
74%
Portmore United or Dunbeholden
71%
Draw or Dunbeholden
55%

Winning margin

Portmore United wins by 2+
21%
Dunbeholden wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Portmore United 1+ goals
72%
Portmore United 2+ goals
37%
Portmore United 3+ goals
14%
Dunbeholden 1+ goals
59%
Dunbeholden 2+ goals
23%
Dunbeholden 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Portmore United (draw refunded)
63%
Dunbeholden (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portmore United at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.78 · 100 matches

Dunbeholden away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.37 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portmore United attack 1.19 + Dunbeholden defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.28

Dunbeholden attack 1.02 + Portmore United defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Portmore United scores more
45%
level
29%
Dunbeholden scores more
26%

Portmore United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Portmore United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Portmore United 1–1 Dunbeholden

Portmore United and Dunbeholden drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Ferdie Neita Sports Complex in Portmore.