Dunbeholden 1–0 Portmore United: Result & Stats

Dunbeholden

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Portmore United

4/27/2025

Premier League · Round 38Prison Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Dunbeholden34%

×Draw28%

Portmore United38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DunbeholdenExpected goals in this matchPortmore United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.23

Dunbeholden

1.14

Portmore United

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 96 away

1.38

creates per match

1.21

1.25

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Dunbeholden

1.38

Portmore United

1.21

allows per match

Dunbeholden

1.25

Portmore United

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunbeholden+0.00on par

Portmore United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunbeholden ↓

Portmore United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dunbeholden or draw

62%

Dunbeholden or Portmore United

72%

Draw or Portmore United

66%

Winning margin

Dunbeholden wins by 2+

14%

Portmore United wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Dunbeholden 1+ goals

68%

Dunbeholden 2+ goals

32%

Dunbeholden 3+ goals

11%

Portmore United 1+ goals

71%

Portmore United 2+ goals

35%

Portmore United 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dunbeholden (draw refunded)

47%

Portmore United (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunbeholden at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 93 matches

Portmore United away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.90 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunbeholden attack 1.38 + Portmore United defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.14

Portmore United attack 1.21 + Dunbeholden defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dunbeholden scores more

34%

level

28%

Portmore United scores more

38%

Portmore United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Portmore United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff