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Portmore United vs Arnett Gardens — Premier League 2019

Portmore United
Portmore United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Arnett Gardens
Arnett Gardens
4/26/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 37Ferdi Neita Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Portmore United35%
×Draw27%
Arnett Gardens38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portmore United
1.19
Arnett Gardens
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 103 away

creates per match

Portmore United
1.19
Arnett Gardens
1.71

allows per match

Portmore United
0.78
Arnett Gardens
1.19

finishing

Portmore United+0.00on par
Arnett Gardens+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portmore United ↓

Arnett Gardens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Portmore United or draw
62%
Portmore United or Arnett Gardens
73%
Draw or Arnett Gardens
65%

Winning margin

Portmore United wins by 2+
15%
Arnett Gardens wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Portmore United 1+ goals
70%
Portmore United 2+ goals
33%
Portmore United 3+ goals
12%
Arnett Gardens 1+ goals
71%
Arnett Gardens 2+ goals
36%
Arnett Gardens 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Portmore United (draw refunded)
48%
Arnett Gardens (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portmore United at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.78 · 100 matches

Arnett Gardens away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portmore United attack 1.19 + Arnett Gardens defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Arnett Gardens attack 1.71 + Portmore United defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Portmore United scores more
35%
level
27%
Arnett Gardens scores more
38%

Arnett Gardens at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Arnett Gardens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Portmore United 1–2 Arnett Gardens

Arnett Gardens beat Portmore United 2-1 in Premier League on April 26, 2026.

The match was played at Ferdi Neita Sports Complex in Portmore.