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Portmany vs Santa Catalina Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Portmany
Portmany
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Santa Catalina Atlético
Santa Catalina Atlético
10/27/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 10Estadio Sant Antoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Portmany59%
×Draw23%
Santa Catalina Atlético18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portmany
1.76
Santa Catalina Atlético
0.84

Portmany creates 110% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 28 away

creates per match

Portmany
1.23
Santa Catalina Atlético
0.57

allows per match

Portmany
1.11
Santa Catalina Atlético
2.29

finishing

Portmany+0.00on par
Santa Catalina Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portmany ↓

Santa Catalina Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Portmany or draw
82%
Portmany or Santa Catalina Atlético
77%
Draw or Santa Catalina Atlético
41%

Winning margin

Portmany wins by 2+
34%
Santa Catalina Atlético wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Portmany 1+ goals
83%
Portmany 2+ goals
52%
Portmany 3+ goals
26%
Santa Catalina Atlético 1+ goals
57%
Santa Catalina Atlético 2+ goals
21%
Santa Catalina Atlético 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Portmany (draw refunded)
77%
Santa Catalina Atlético (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portmany at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.11 · 113 matches

Santa Catalina Atlético away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portmany attack 1.23 + Santa Catalina Atlético defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.76

Santa Catalina Atlético attack 0.57 + Portmany defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Portmany scores more
59%
level
23%
Santa Catalina Atlético scores more
18%

Portmany at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Portmany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Portmany 2–2 Santa Catalina Atlético

Portmany and Santa Catalina Atlético drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Sant Antoni in Sant Antoni de Portmany.