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Portmany vs Génova — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Portmany
Portmany
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Génova
Génova
1/10/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 11Estadio Sant Antoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Portmany54%
×Draw25%
Génova21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portmany
1.61
Génova
0.89

Portmany creates 81% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 15 away

creates per match

Portmany
1.23
Génova
0.67

allows per match

Portmany
1.11
Génova
2.00

finishing

Portmany+0.00on par
Génova+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portmany ↓

Génova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Portmany or draw
79%
Portmany or Génova
75%
Draw or Génova
46%

Winning margin

Portmany wins by 2+
29%
Génova wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Portmany 1+ goals
80%
Portmany 2+ goals
48%
Portmany 3+ goals
22%
Génova 1+ goals
59%
Génova 2+ goals
22%
Génova 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Portmany (draw refunded)
72%
Génova (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portmany at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.11 · 113 matches

Génova away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portmany attack 1.23 + Génova defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Génova attack 0.67 + Portmany defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Portmany scores more
54%
level
25%
Génova scores more
21%

Portmany at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Portmany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portmany vs Génova

Portmany beat Génova 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on January 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Sant Antoni in Sant Antoni de Portmany.