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Portmany vs Campos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Portmany
Portmany
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Campos
Campos
3/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 36Estadio Sant Antoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Portmany54%
×Draw24%
Campos22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portmany
1.75
Campos
1.02

Portmany creates 72% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 37 away

creates per match

Portmany
1.23
Campos
0.92

allows per match

Portmany
1.11
Campos
2.27

finishing

Portmany+0.00on par
Campos+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portmany ↓

Campos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Portmany or draw
78%
Portmany or Campos
76%
Draw or Campos
46%

Winning margin

Portmany wins by 2+
30%
Campos wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Portmany 1+ goals
83%
Portmany 2+ goals
52%
Portmany 3+ goals
25%
Campos 1+ goals
64%
Campos 2+ goals
27%
Campos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Portmany (draw refunded)
71%
Campos (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portmany at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.11 · 113 matches

Campos away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portmany attack 1.23 + Campos defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.75

Campos attack 0.92 + Portmany defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Portmany scores more
54%
level
24%
Campos scores more
22%

Portmany at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Portmany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portmany vs Campos

Portmany and Campos drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Sant Antoni in Sant Antoni de Portmany.