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Portmany vs Andratx — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Portmany
Portmany
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Andratx
Andratx
3/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 26Estadio Sant Antoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Portmany32%
×Draw26%
Andratx42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portmany
1.23
Andratx
1.46

Andratx creates 19% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 41 away

creates per match

Portmany
1.23
Andratx
1.80

allows per match

Portmany
1.11
Andratx
1.22

finishing

Portmany+0.00on par
Andratx+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portmany ↓

Andratx →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Portmany or draw
58%
Portmany or Andratx
74%
Draw or Andratx
68%

Winning margin

Portmany wins by 2+
13%
Andratx wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Portmany 1+ goals
71%
Portmany 2+ goals
35%
Portmany 3+ goals
13%
Andratx 1+ goals
77%
Andratx 2+ goals
43%
Andratx 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Portmany (draw refunded)
43%
Andratx (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portmany at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.11 · 113 matches

Andratx away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.22 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portmany attack 1.23 + Andratx defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Andratx attack 1.80 + Portmany defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Portmany scores more
32%
level
26%
Andratx scores more
42%

Andratx at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Andratx will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Portmany 1–2 Andratx

Andratx beat Portmany 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Sant Antoni in Sant Antoni de Portmany.