Portland Timbers 1–4 Vancouver Whitecaps

Portland Timbers

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Vancouver Whitecaps

Antony 73'

J. Nelson 61'

S. Adekugbe 53'

P. Vite 32'

R. Gauld 24'

2/23/2025

Major League Soccer · Round 1Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Portland Timbers37%

×Draw25%

Vancouver Whitecaps38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portland TimbersExpected goals in this matchVancouver Whitecaps

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.48

Portland Timbers

1.46

Vancouver Whitecaps

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 29 away

1.70

creates per match

1.56

1.41

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Portland Timbers

1.70

Vancouver Whitecaps

1.56

allows per match

Portland Timbers

1.41

Vancouver Whitecaps

1.22

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.37scores more than expected

finishing

Portland Timbers+0.15scores more

Vancouver Whitecaps+0.37scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers ↓

Vancouver Whitecaps →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Portland Timbers or draw

62%

Portland Timbers or Vancouver Whitecaps

75%

Draw or Vancouver Whitecaps

63%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers wins by 2+

18%

Vancouver Whitecaps wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Portland Timbers 1+ goals

77%

Portland Timbers 2+ goals

43%

Portland Timbers 3+ goals

18%

Vancouver Whitecaps 1+ goals

77%

Vancouver Whitecaps 2+ goals

43%

Vancouver Whitecaps 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers (draw refunded)

49%

Vancouver Whitecaps (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.41 · 39 matches

Vancouver Whitecaps away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.22 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers attack 1.70 + Vancouver Whitecaps defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.46

Vancouver Whitecaps attack 1.56 + Portland Timbers defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Portland Timbers scores more

37%

level

25%

Vancouver Whitecaps scores more

38%

Vancouver Whitecaps at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vancouver Whitecaps will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Nelson

Vancouver Whitecaps · F

9.9

Match Events

11'

24'

32'

36'

37'

46'

D. Pereira da Costa← D. Ayala

53'

S. Adekugbe

61'

J. Nelson

62'

R. Priso-Mbongue← A. Cubas

62'

63'

66'

66'

73'

82'

J. Badwal← S. Berhalter

82'

E. Ocampo← S. Adekugbe

86'

A. Lassiter← Antony

87'

N. Fleuriau← B. White

88'

Ryan Gauld

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortlandVancouver

Overview

34%Possession66%

6Total Shots22

0.74Expected Goals (xG)2.98

3Corners10

9Fouls16

Shots

6Total Shots22

2On Target10

1Off Target5

3Blocked7

4Inside Box15

2Outside Box7

Passing

34%Possession66%

343Total Passes676

268Accurate Passes615

78%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

-0.14Goals Prevented-0.14

Discipline

9Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2