Portland Timbers 2–1 San Jose Earthquakes

Portland Timbers

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

San Jose Earthquakes

Evander 58'

C. Paredes 45+3'

M. Hoppe 60'

9/21/2023

Major League Soccer · Round 43Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 39+ matches

Portland Timbers46%

×Draw24%

San Jose Earthquakes30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portland TimbersExpected goals in this matchSan Jose Earthquakes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.36

Portland Timbers

1.73

San Jose Earthquakes

1.36

Portland Timbers creates 27% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 50 away

1.70

creates per match

1.32

1.41

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Portland Timbers

1.70

San Jose Earthquakes

1.32

allows per match

Portland Timbers

1.41

San Jose Earthquakes

1.75

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Portland Timbers+0.15scores more

San Jose Earthquakes+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers ↓

San Jose Earthquakes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Portland Timbers or draw

70%

Portland Timbers or San Jose Earthquakes

76%

Draw or San Jose Earthquakes

54%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers wins by 2+

25%

San Jose Earthquakes wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Portland Timbers 1+ goals

82%

Portland Timbers 2+ goals

52%

Portland Timbers 3+ goals

25%

San Jose Earthquakes 1+ goals

74%

San Jose Earthquakes 2+ goals

39%

San Jose Earthquakes 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers (draw refunded)

60%

San Jose Earthquakes (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.41 · 39 matches

San Jose Earthquakes away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.75 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers attack 1.70 + San Jose Earthquakes defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.73

San Jose Earthquakes attack 1.32 + Portland Timbers defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Portland Timbers scores more

46%

level

24%

San Jose Earthquakes scores more

30%

Portland Timbers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Portland Timbers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

C. Paredes

Portland Timbers · M

8.2

Match Events

32'

Paul Marie

35'

Carlos Gruezo

41'

Cristhian Paredes

45+3'

C. Paredes↳ B. Acosta

48'

Sebastián BlancoPenalty cancelled

58'

Evander

59'

M. Trauco← Carlos Akapo

59'

N. Tsakiris← C. Gruezo

59'

C. Cowell← Jamiro Monteiro

60'

M. Hoppe

62'

J. Mensah← Rodrigues

64'

Antony← S. Blanco

64'

Y. Chará← Evander

64'

F. Mora← F. Boli

78'

D. Asprilla← S. Moreno

85'

A. Akinola← P. Marie

90+9'

David Bingham

90+2'

Cristian Espinoza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortlandSan

Overview

46%Possession54%

19Total Shots6

2.13Expected Goals (xG)1.27

6Corners5

12Fouls9

Shots

19Total Shots6

6On Target2

10Off Target3

3Blocked1

12Inside Box5

7Outside Box1

Passing

46%Possession54%

431Total Passes505

357Accurate Passes432

83%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2