Portland Timbers 2–2 CF Montreal: Result & Stats

Portland Timbers

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

CF Montreal

D. Váleri 65'

S. Armenteros 39'

M. Mancosu 41'

S. Taïder 23'

7/22/2018

Major League Soccer · Round 24Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Portland Timbers43%

×Draw24%

CF Montreal33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portland TimbersExpected goals in this matchCF Montreal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.42

Portland Timbers

1.64

CF Montreal

1.42

Portland Timbers creates 15% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 15 away

1.57

creates per match

1.39

1.46

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Portland Timbers

1.57

CF Montreal

1.39

allows per match

Portland Timbers

1.46

CF Montreal

1.71

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Portland Timbers+0.11scores more

CF Montreal+0.21scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers ↓

CF Montreal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Portland Timbers or draw

67%

Portland Timbers or CF Montreal

76%

Draw or CF Montreal

57%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers wins by 2+

22%

CF Montreal wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Portland Timbers 1+ goals

81%

Portland Timbers 2+ goals

49%

Portland Timbers 3+ goals

23%

CF Montreal 1+ goals

76%

CF Montreal 2+ goals

41%

CF Montreal 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers (draw refunded)

56%

CF Montreal (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.46 · 25 matches

CF Montreal away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.71 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers attack 1.57 + CF Montreal defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.64

CF Montreal attack 1.39 + Portland Timbers defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Portland Timbers scores more

43%

level

24%

CF Montreal scores more

33%

Portland Timbers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Portland Timbers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

D. Váleri

Portland Timbers · M

8.3

Match Events

19'

Samuel Piette

23'

S. Taïder↳ A. Silva

36'

V. Cabrera← R. Camacho

39'

S. Armenteros

41'

M. Mancosu↳ I. Piatti

65'

D. Váleri

68'

A. Polo← C. Paredes

86'

M. Petrasso← A. Silva

87'

D. Asprilla← S. Blanco

89'

M. Choiniere← S. Shome

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortlandCF

Overview

55%Possession45%

18Total Shots11

5Corners0

10Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots11

8On Target2

8Off Target7

2Blocked2

14Inside Box7

4Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

504Total Passes409

414Accurate Passes335

82%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

10Fouls12

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1