Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Portland Timbers III vs TSS Rovers — USL League Two 2018

Portland Timbers III
Portland Timbers III
FT
6 – 0
TSS Rovers
TSS Rovers
7/7/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 12McCulloch Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Portland Timbers III76%
×Draw13%
TSS Rovers11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Timbers III
3.33
TSS Rovers
1.24

Portland Timbers III creates 169% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

creates per match

Portland Timbers III
2.47
TSS Rovers
1.60

allows per match

Portland Timbers III
0.87
TSS Rovers
4.20

finishing

Portland Timbers III+0.00on par
TSS Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers III ↓

TSS Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Portland Timbers III or draw
89%
Portland Timbers III or TSS Rovers
87%
Draw or TSS Rovers
24%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers III wins by 2+
58%
TSS Rovers wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Portland Timbers III 1+ goals
96%
Portland Timbers III 2+ goals
84%
Portland Timbers III 3+ goals
63%
TSS Rovers 1+ goals
71%
TSS Rovers 2+ goals
35%
TSS Rovers 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers III (draw refunded)
88%
TSS Rovers (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers III at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

TSS Rovers away — creates 1.60, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers III attack 2.47 + TSS Rovers defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 3.33

TSS Rovers attack 1.60 + Portland Timbers III defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Portland Timbers III scores more
76%
level
13%
TSS Rovers scores more
11%

Portland Timbers III at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Portland Timbers III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portland Timbers III vs TSS Rovers

Portland Timbers III beat TSS Rovers 6-0 in USL League Two on July 7, 2019.

The match was played at McCulloch Stadium.