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Portland Timbers III vs Park City Red Wolves — USL League Two 2018

Portland Timbers III
Portland Timbers III
AET
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Park City Red Wolves
Park City Red Wolves
M. Afonso 57', 4'
C. Sosa 10'
C. Wight 89', 64'
R. Jiba 2'
7/23/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Conference - FinalsValley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Portland Timbers III53%
×Draw22%
Park City Red Wolves26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Timbers III
2.03
Park City Red Wolves
1.36

Portland Timbers III creates 49% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 22 away

creates per match

Portland Timbers III
2.47
Park City Red Wolves
1.86

allows per match

Portland Timbers III
0.87
Park City Red Wolves
1.59

finishing

Portland Timbers III+0.00on par
Park City Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers III ↓

Park City Red Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Portland Timbers III or draw
74%
Portland Timbers III or Park City Red Wolves
78%
Draw or Park City Red Wolves
47%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers III wins by 2+
31%
Park City Red Wolves wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Portland Timbers III 1+ goals
87%
Portland Timbers III 2+ goals
60%
Portland Timbers III 3+ goals
33%
Park City Red Wolves 1+ goals
74%
Park City Red Wolves 2+ goals
39%
Park City Red Wolves 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers III (draw refunded)
67%
Park City Red Wolves (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers III at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Park City Red Wolves away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers III attack 2.47 + Park City Red Wolves defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.03

Park City Red Wolves attack 1.86 + Portland Timbers III defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Portland Timbers III scores more
53%
level
22%
Park City Red Wolves scores more
26%

Portland Timbers III at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Portland Timbers III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
R. Jiba
4'
M. Afonso
10'
C. Sosa
57'
M. Afonso
64'
C. Wight
89'
C. Wight

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portland Timbers III vs Park City Red Wolves

Portland Timbers III and Park City Red Wolves drew 3-3 in USL League Two on July 23, 2021.

Goals: R. Jiba (2'), M. Afonso (4', 57'), C. Sosa (10'), C. Wight (64', 89').

The match was played at Valley Stadium in West Des Moines, Iowa.