Portland Timbers II 4–0 Tulsa Roughnecks

Portland Timbers II

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Tulsa Roughnecks

9/9/2018

USL Championship · Round 47Providence Park (Portland, Oregon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Portland Timbers II43%

×Draw22%

Tulsa Roughnecks34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portland Timbers IIExpected goals in this matchTulsa Roughnecks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.64

Portland Timbers II

1.86

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.64

Portland Timbers II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 130 away

1.91

creates per match

1.19

2.09

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Portland Timbers II

1.91

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.19

allows per match

Portland Timbers II

2.09

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portland Timbers II+0.00on par

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers II ↓

Tulsa Roughnecks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Portland Timbers II or draw

66%

Portland Timbers II or Tulsa Roughnecks

78%

Draw or Tulsa Roughnecks

57%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers II wins by 2+

23%

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Portland Timbers II 1+ goals

84%

Portland Timbers II 2+ goals

55%

Portland Timbers II 3+ goals

28%

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals

81%

Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals

49%

Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers II (draw refunded)

56%

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers II at home — creates 1.91, concedes 2.09 · 43 matches

Tulsa Roughnecks away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers II attack 1.91 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.86

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.19 + Portland Timbers II defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Portland Timbers II scores more

43%

level

22%

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more

34%

Portland Timbers II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Portland Timbers II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff