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Portland Timbers II vs Seattle Sounders II — USL Championship 2018

Portland Timbers II
Portland Timbers II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Seattle Sounders II
Seattle Sounders II
8/20/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 41Harry A. Merlo Field (Portland, Oregon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Portland Timbers II54%
×Draw21%
Seattle Sounders II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Timbers II
2.17
Seattle Sounders II
1.46

Portland Timbers II creates 49% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 18 away

creates per match

Portland Timbers II
1.91
Seattle Sounders II
0.83

allows per match

Portland Timbers II
2.09
Seattle Sounders II
2.44

finishing

Portland Timbers II+0.00on par
Seattle Sounders II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers II ↓

Seattle Sounders II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Portland Timbers II or draw
74%
Portland Timbers II or Seattle Sounders II
79%
Draw or Seattle Sounders II
46%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers II wins by 2+
32%
Seattle Sounders II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Portland Timbers II 1+ goals
89%
Portland Timbers II 2+ goals
64%
Portland Timbers II 3+ goals
36%
Seattle Sounders II 1+ goals
77%
Seattle Sounders II 2+ goals
43%
Seattle Sounders II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers II (draw refunded)
68%
Seattle Sounders II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers II at home — creates 1.91, concedes 2.09 · 43 matches

Seattle Sounders II away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers II attack 1.91 + Seattle Sounders II defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.17

Seattle Sounders II attack 0.83 + Portland Timbers II defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Portland Timbers II scores more
54%
level
21%
Seattle Sounders II scores more
26%

Portland Timbers II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Portland Timbers II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Portland Timbers II 4 – 1 Seattle Sounders II

Portland Timbers II beat Seattle Sounders II 4-1 in USL Championship on August 20, 2018.

The match was played at Harry A. Merlo Field (Portland, Oregon).