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Portland Timbers II vs Saint Louis — USL Championship 2018

Portland Timbers II
Portland Timbers II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Saint Louis
Saint Louis
9/2/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 45Providence Park (Portland, Oregon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Portland Timbers II43%
×Draw23%
Saint Louis34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Timbers II
1.71
Saint Louis
1.51

Portland Timbers II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 45 away

creates per match

Portland Timbers II
1.91
Saint Louis
0.93

allows per match

Portland Timbers II
2.09
Saint Louis
1.51

finishing

Portland Timbers II+0.00on par
Saint Louis+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers II ↓

Saint Louis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Portland Timbers II or draw
66%
Portland Timbers II or Saint Louis
77%
Draw or Saint Louis
57%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers II wins by 2+
22%
Saint Louis wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Portland Timbers II 1+ goals
82%
Portland Timbers II 2+ goals
51%
Portland Timbers II 3+ goals
24%
Saint Louis 1+ goals
78%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
44%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers II (draw refunded)
55%
Saint Louis (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers II at home — creates 1.91, concedes 2.09 · 43 matches

Saint Louis away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers II attack 1.91 + Saint Louis defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.71

Saint Louis attack 0.93 + Portland Timbers II defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Portland Timbers II scores more
43%
level
23%
Saint Louis scores more
34%

Portland Timbers II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Portland Timbers II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portland Timbers II vs Saint Louis

Portland Timbers II beat Saint Louis 1-0 in USL Championship on September 2, 2018.

The match was played at Providence Park (Portland, Oregon).