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Portland Timbers II vs Reno 1868 — USL Championship 2018

Portland Timbers II
Portland Timbers II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Reno 1868
Reno 1868
10/4/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 54Harry A. Merlo Field (Portland, Oregon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Portland Timbers II31%
×Draw22%
Reno 186847%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Timbers II
1.55
Reno 1868
1.96

Reno 1868 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 44 away

creates per match

Portland Timbers II
1.91
Reno 1868
1.84

allows per match

Portland Timbers II
2.09
Reno 1868
1.20

finishing

Portland Timbers II+0.00on par
Reno 1868+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers II ↓

Reno 1868 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Portland Timbers II or draw
53%
Portland Timbers II or Reno 1868
78%
Draw or Reno 1868
69%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers II wins by 2+
14%
Reno 1868 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Portland Timbers II 1+ goals
79%
Portland Timbers II 2+ goals
46%
Portland Timbers II 3+ goals
20%
Reno 1868 1+ goals
86%
Reno 1868 2+ goals
58%
Reno 1868 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers II (draw refunded)
39%
Reno 1868 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers II at home — creates 1.91, concedes 2.09 · 43 matches

Reno 1868 away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.20 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers II attack 1.91 + Reno 1868 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.55

Reno 1868 attack 1.84 + Portland Timbers II defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Portland Timbers II scores more
31%
level
22%
Reno 1868 scores more
47%

Reno 1868 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Reno 1868 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Portland Timbers II 0 – 2 Reno 1868

Reno 1868 beat Portland Timbers II 2-0 in USL Championship on October 4, 2018.

The match was played at Harry A. Merlo Field (Portland, Oregon).