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Portland Timbers II vs OKC Energy — USL Championship 2018

Portland Timbers II
Portland Timbers II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
OKC Energy
OKC Energy
6/17/2017USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 18Providence Park (Portland, Oregon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Portland Timbers II42%
×Draw22%
OKC Energy36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Timbers II
1.83
OKC Energy
1.67

Portland Timbers II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 62 away

creates per match

Portland Timbers II
1.91
OKC Energy
1.24

allows per match

Portland Timbers II
2.09
OKC Energy
1.76

finishing

Portland Timbers II+0.00on par
OKC Energy+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers II ↓

OKC Energy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Portland Timbers II or draw
64%
Portland Timbers II or OKC Energy
78%
Draw or OKC Energy
58%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers II wins by 2+
22%
OKC Energy wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Portland Timbers II 1+ goals
84%
Portland Timbers II 2+ goals
54%
Portland Timbers II 3+ goals
28%
OKC Energy 1+ goals
81%
OKC Energy 2+ goals
50%
OKC Energy 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers II (draw refunded)
54%
OKC Energy (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers II at home — creates 1.91, concedes 2.09 · 43 matches

OKC Energy away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers II attack 1.91 + OKC Energy defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.83

OKC Energy attack 1.24 + Portland Timbers II defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Portland Timbers II scores more
42%
level
22%
OKC Energy scores more
36%

Portland Timbers II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Portland Timbers II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portland Timbers II vs OKC Energy

OKC Energy beat Portland Timbers II 3-1 in USL Championship on June 17, 2017.

The match was played at Providence Park (Portland, Oregon).