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Portland Timbers II vs Fresno FC — USL Championship 2018

Portland Timbers II
Portland Timbers II
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Fresno FC
Fresno FC
7/8/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 30Harry A. Merlo Field (Portland, Oregon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Portland Timbers II39%
×Draw23%
Fresno FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Timbers II
1.63
Fresno FC
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 34 away

creates per match

Portland Timbers II
1.91
Fresno FC
1.15

allows per match

Portland Timbers II
2.09
Fresno FC
1.35

finishing

Portland Timbers II+0.00on par
Fresno FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers II ↓

Fresno FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Portland Timbers II or draw
62%
Portland Timbers II or Fresno FC
77%
Draw or Fresno FC
61%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers II wins by 2+
19%
Fresno FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Portland Timbers II 1+ goals
80%
Portland Timbers II 2+ goals
48%
Portland Timbers II 3+ goals
22%
Fresno FC 1+ goals
80%
Fresno FC 2+ goals
48%
Fresno FC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers II (draw refunded)
50%
Fresno FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers II at home — creates 1.91, concedes 2.09 · 43 matches

Fresno FC away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers II attack 1.91 + Fresno FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.63

Fresno FC attack 1.15 + Portland Timbers II defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Portland Timbers II scores more
39%
level
23%
Fresno FC scores more
38%

Portland Timbers II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Portland Timbers II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Portland Timbers II 2 – 4 Fresno FC

Fresno FC beat Portland Timbers II 4-2 in USL Championship on July 8, 2018.

The match was played at Harry A. Merlo Field (Portland, Oregon).