Portland Thorns W 2–0 Orlando Pride W

Portland Thorns W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Orlando Pride W

C. Sinclair 55'

M. Weaver 12'

10/12/2024

NWSL Women · Round 17Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Portland Thorns W54%

×Draw24%

Orlando Pride W22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portland Thorns WExpected goals in this matchOrlando Pride W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.98

Portland Thorns W

1.70

Orlando Pride W

0.98

Portland Thorns W creates 73% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 81 away

1.92

creates per match

1.09

0.87

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Portland Thorns W

1.92

Orlando Pride W

1.09

allows per match

Portland Thorns W

0.87

Orlando Pride W

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portland Thorns W+0.00on par

Orlando Pride W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Thorns W ↓

Orlando Pride W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Portland Thorns W or draw

78%

Portland Thorns W or Orlando Pride W

76%

Draw or Orlando Pride W

46%

Winning margin

Portland Thorns W wins by 2+

30%

Orlando Pride W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Portland Thorns W 1+ goals

82%

Portland Thorns W 2+ goals

51%

Portland Thorns W 3+ goals

24%

Orlando Pride W 1+ goals

62%

Orlando Pride W 2+ goals

26%

Orlando Pride W 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)

71%

Orlando Pride W (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Thorns W at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.87 · 85 matches

Orlando Pride W away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Thorns W attack 1.92 + Orlando Pride W defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.70

Orlando Pride W attack 1.09 + Portland Thorns W defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Portland Thorns W scores more

54%

level

24%

Orlando Pride W scores more

22%

Portland Thorns W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Portland Thorns W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

M. Weaver

Portland Thorns W · M

8.3

Match Events

12'

M. Weaver↳ R. Reyes

22'

Carson Pickett

55'

A. Lemos← S. Yates

55'

C. Sinclair↳ S. Coffey

63'

I. D'Aquila← M. Weaver

65'

E. Sams← C. Lawrence

65'

B. Banda← C. Pickett

65'

Adriana← E. Duljan

76'

Marta← A. Watt

80'

M. Sheva← P. Linnehan

80'

M. Müller← C. Sinclair

82'

Reyna Reyes

85'

Marie Müller

90+1'

A. Spaanstra← O. Moultrie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortlandOrlando

Overview

42%Possession58%

16Total Shots10

4Corners4

11Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots10

6On Target4

5Off Target5

5Blocked1

7Inside Box7

9Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

365Total Passes495

284Accurate Passes415

78%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1