Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Portland Thorns W vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W — NWSL Women 2026

Portland Thorns W
Portland Thorns W
Preview
02:00
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
7/25/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageProvidence Park
Big match
48%
Portland Thorns W
model favours
48%25%26%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W score first in only 23% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Portland Thorns W48%
×Draw25%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Thorns W
1.55
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
1.07

Portland Thorns W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 86 away

creates per match

Portland Thorns W
1.92
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
1.27

allows per match

Portland Thorns W
0.87
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
1.19

finishing

Portland Thorns W+0.00on par
NJ/NY Gotham FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Thorns W ↓

NJ/NY Gotham FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Portland Thorns W or draw
74%
Portland Thorns W or NJ/NY Gotham FC W
75%
Draw or NJ/NY Gotham FC W
52%

Winning margin

Portland Thorns W wins by 2+
25%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Portland Thorns W 1+ goals
79%
Portland Thorns W 2+ goals
46%
Portland Thorns W 3+ goals
20%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1+ goals
66%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2+ goals
29%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)
65%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Thorns W at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.87 · 85 matches

NJ/NY Gotham FC W away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.19 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Thorns W attack 1.92 + NJ/NY Gotham FC W defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.55

NJ/NY Gotham FC W attack 1.27 + Portland Thorns W defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Portland Thorns W scores more
48%
level
25%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W scores more
26%

Portland Thorns W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Portland Thorns W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • NJ/NY Gotham FC W have won 3 in a row
  • 69% of NJ/NY Gotham FC W’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 31% of NJ/NY Gotham FC W’s matches
  • Portland Thorns W outscore their xG (1.6 vs 0.8 expected)
  • NJ/NY Gotham FC W fall short of their xG (1.6 vs 2.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Portland Thorns W
Defensively solid
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
Defensively solid
47%Possession52%
77%Pass accuracy77%
11.4Shots11.5
0.79xGBiggest gap2.64
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Portland Thorns WNJ/NY Gotham FC W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Portland Thorns W
1
Draws
6
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 40%
0–34–11–20–20–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
LLWDL
W
WWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Portland Thorns W face NJ/NY Gotham FC W (NWSL Women)

NWSL Women returns with Portland Thorns W hosting NJ/NY Gotham FC W. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Portland Thorns W host NJ/NY Gotham FC W at Providence Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.