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NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs Portland Thorns W — NWSL Women 2026

NJ/NY Gotham FC W
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Portland Thorns W
Portland Thorns W
9/27/2025NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 22Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

NJ/NY Gotham FC W38%
×Draw27%
Portland Thorns W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NJ/NY Gotham FC W
1.25
Portland Thorns W
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 85 away

creates per match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W
1.06
Portland Thorns W
1.33

allows per match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W
1.04
Portland Thorns W
1.44

finishing

NJ/NY Gotham FC W+0.00on par
Portland Thorns W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NJ/NY Gotham FC W ↓

Portland Thorns W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

NJ/NY Gotham FC W or draw
65%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W or Portland Thorns W
73%
Draw or Portland Thorns W
62%

Winning margin

NJ/NY Gotham FC W wins by 2+
16%
Portland Thorns W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1+ goals
71%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2+ goals
36%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W 3+ goals
13%
Portland Thorns W 1+ goals
70%
Portland Thorns W 2+ goals
33%
Portland Thorns W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

NJ/NY Gotham FC W (draw refunded)
52%
Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NJ/NY Gotham FC W at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.04 · 83 matches

Portland Thorns W away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.44 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W attack 1.06 + Portland Thorns W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Portland Thorns W attack 1.33 + NJ/NY Gotham FC W defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

NJ/NY Gotham FC W scores more
38%
level
27%
Portland Thorns W scores more
35%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "NJ/NY Gotham FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs Portland Thorns W

NJ/NY Gotham FC W beat Portland Thorns W 3-0 in NWSL Women on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Red Bull Arena in Harrison.