Portland Thorns W 0–1 NJ/NY Gotham FC W

Portland Thorns W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

11/6/2023

NWSL Women · Play-offs - Semi-finalsProvidence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Portland Thorns W48%

×Draw25%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portland Thorns WExpected goals in this matchNJ/NY Gotham FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.07

Portland Thorns W

1.55

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

1.07

Portland Thorns W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 86 away

1.92

creates per match

1.27

0.87

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Portland Thorns W

1.92

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

1.27

allows per match

Portland Thorns W

0.87

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portland Thorns W+0.00on par

NJ/NY Gotham FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Thorns W ↓

NJ/NY Gotham FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Portland Thorns W or draw

74%

Portland Thorns W or NJ/NY Gotham FC W

75%

Draw or NJ/NY Gotham FC W

52%

Winning margin

Portland Thorns W wins by 2+

25%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Portland Thorns W 1+ goals

79%

Portland Thorns W 2+ goals

46%

Portland Thorns W 3+ goals

20%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1+ goals

66%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2+ goals

29%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)

65%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Thorns W at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.87 · 85 matches

NJ/NY Gotham FC W away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.19 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Thorns W attack 1.92 + NJ/NY Gotham FC W defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.55

NJ/NY Gotham FC W attack 1.27 + Portland Thorns W defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Portland Thorns W scores more

48%

level

25%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W scores more

26%

Portland Thorns W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Portland Thorns W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff