Portland Thorns W 3–0 Angel City W: Result & Stats

Portland Thorns W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Angel City W

M. Weaver 45+4'

S. Smith 26'

C. Sinclair 16'

11/2/2024

NWSL Women · Round 19Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Portland Thorns W56%

×Draw24%

Angel City W20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portland Thorns WExpected goals in this matchAngel City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.91

Portland Thorns W

1.69

Angel City W

0.91

Portland Thorns W creates 86% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 21 away

1.86

creates per match

1.14

0.68

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Portland Thorns W

1.86

Angel City W

1.14

allows per match

Portland Thorns W

0.68

Angel City W

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portland Thorns W+0.00on par

Angel City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Thorns W ↓

Angel City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Portland Thorns W or draw

80%

Portland Thorns W or Angel City W

76%

Draw or Angel City W

44%

Winning margin

Portland Thorns W wins by 2+

31%

Angel City W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Portland Thorns W 1+ goals

82%

Portland Thorns W 2+ goals

50%

Portland Thorns W 3+ goals

24%

Angel City W 1+ goals

60%

Angel City W 2+ goals

23%

Angel City W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)

73%

Angel City W (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Thorns W at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.68 · 22 matches

Angel City W away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Thorns W attack 1.86 + Angel City W defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.69

Angel City W attack 1.14 + Portland Thorns W defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Portland Thorns W scores more

56%

level

24%

Angel City W scores more

20%

Portland Thorns W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Portland Thorns W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

S. Coffey

Portland Thorns W · M

7.7

Match Events

16'

C. Sinclair

26'

S. Smith↳ S. Coffey

45+4'

M. Weaver↳ H. Sugita

46'

P. Linnehan← S. Smith

63'

M. Bright← S. Leroux

64'

A. Thompson← M. A. Vignola

64'

C. Emslie← C. Press

72'

A. Spaanstra← M. Weaver

72'

O. Moultrie← H. Sugita

73'

Messiah Bright

75'

E. Eddy← J. Spencer

78'

L. Nabet← M. Dougherty Howard

84'

M. Klingenberg← C. Sinclair

90+3'

S. Hirst← S. Coffey

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortlandAngel

Overview

35%Possession65%

11Total Shots12

1Corners3

6Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots12

6On Target3

4Off Target4

1Blocked5

10Inside Box9

1Outside Box3

Passing

35%Possession65%

307Total Passes562

214Accurate Passes463

70%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2