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Portland Phoenix vs Boston Bolts — USL League Two 2018

Portland Phoenix
Portland Phoenix
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Boston Bolts
Boston Bolts
7/13/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 16Deering High School Memorial Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Portland Phoenix51%
×Draw20%
Boston Bolts29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Phoenix
2.39
Boston Bolts
1.77

Portland Phoenix creates 35% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 45 away

creates per match

Portland Phoenix
3.00
Boston Bolts
1.22

allows per match

Portland Phoenix
2.33
Boston Bolts
1.78

finishing

Portland Phoenix+0.00on par
Boston Bolts+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Phoenix ↓

Boston Bolts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Portland Phoenix or draw
71%
Portland Phoenix or Boston Bolts
80%
Draw or Boston Bolts
49%

Winning margin

Portland Phoenix wins by 2+
32%
Boston Bolts wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Portland Phoenix 1+ goals
91%
Portland Phoenix 2+ goals
69%
Portland Phoenix 3+ goals
42%
Boston Bolts 1+ goals
83%
Boston Bolts 2+ goals
53%
Boston Bolts 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Portland Phoenix (draw refunded)
64%
Boston Bolts (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Phoenix at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Boston Bolts away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Phoenix attack 3.00 + Boston Bolts defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.39

Boston Bolts attack 1.22 + Portland Phoenix defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Portland Phoenix scores more
51%
level
20%
Boston Bolts scores more
29%

Portland Phoenix at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Portland Phoenix will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Portland Phoenix 4–3 Boston Bolts

Portland Phoenix beat Boston Bolts 4-3 in USL League Two on July 13, 2019.

The match was played at Deering High School Memorial Field.