Portland Hearts of Pine vs Richmond Kickers — USL League One 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 22+ matches
Portland Hearts of Pine57%
Richmond Kickers20%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Portland Hearts of Pine creates 83% more chances
Season form · 22 home / 25 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over56
- Under44
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Portland Hearts of Pine ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Portland Hearts of Pine at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches
Richmond Kickers away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.92 · 25 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Portland Hearts of Pine attack 1.86 + Richmond Kickers defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.89
Richmond Kickers attack 0.92 + Portland Hearts of Pine defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.03
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Portland Hearts of Pine at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Portland Hearts of Pine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Portland Hearts of Pine
Charlotte Independence
Chattanooga Red Wolves
Union Omaha
Alta
One Knoxville
Spokane Velocity
Forward Madison
Naples
Fort Wayne
Greenville Triumph
Westchester SC
Corpus Christi
Sarasota Paradise
Boise
TormentaRichmond Kickers
NY CosmosIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Portland Hearts of Pine host Richmond Kickers on Saturday, 9 August 2025 at 21:00. The match is part of the USL League One 2025/2026 season.
Portland Hearts of Pine 0 – 0 Richmond Kickers
Portland Hearts of Pine and Richmond Kickers drew 0-0 in USL League One on August 9, 2025.
The match was played at Fitzpatrick Stadium.