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Portishead W vs Exeter City W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Portishead W
Portishead W
FT
2 – 0
Exeter City W
Exeter City W
11/27/2022FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundBristol Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Portishead W28%
×Draw19%
Exeter City W53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portishead W
1.93
Exeter City W
2.67

Exeter City W creates 38% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Portishead W
3.00
Exeter City W
4.14

allows per match

Portishead W
1.20
Exeter City W
0.86

finishing

Portishead W+0.00on par
Exeter City W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portishead W ↓

Exeter City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Portishead W or draw
47%
Portishead W or Exeter City W
81%
Draw or Exeter City W
72%

Winning margin

Portishead W wins by 2+
14%
Exeter City W wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Portishead W 1+ goals
85%
Portishead W 2+ goals
57%
Portishead W 3+ goals
30%
Exeter City W 1+ goals
93%
Exeter City W 2+ goals
74%
Exeter City W 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Portishead W (draw refunded)
34%
Exeter City W (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portishead W at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Exeter City W away — creates 4.14, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portishead W attack 3.00 + Exeter City W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.93

Exeter City W attack 4.14 + Portishead W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Portishead W scores more
28%
level
19%
Exeter City W scores more
53%

Exeter City W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Exeter City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Portishead W 2–0 Exeter City W

Portishead W beat Exeter City W 2-0 in FA Women's Cup on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at Bristol Road in Bristol.