Portishead W 1–5 AFC Portchester W: Result & Stats

Portishead W

1 – 5

AFC Portchester W

10/13/2024

FA Women's Cup · 3rd Round QualifyingBristol Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Portishead W39%

×Draw19%

AFC Portchester W42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portishead WExpected goals in this matchAFC Portchester W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

2.44

Portishead W

2.33

AFC Portchester W

2.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

3.00

creates per match

3.67

1.20

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Portishead W

3.00

AFC Portchester W

3.67

allows per match

Portishead W

1.20

AFC Portchester W

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portishead W+0.00on par

AFC Portchester W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portishead W ↓

AFC Portchester W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Portishead W or draw

58%

Portishead W or AFC Portchester W

81%

Draw or AFC Portchester W

61%

Winning margin

Portishead W wins by 2+

22%

AFC Portchester W wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Portishead W 1+ goals

90%

Portishead W 2+ goals

67%

Portishead W 3+ goals

41%

AFC Portchester W 1+ goals

91%

AFC Portchester W 2+ goals

70%

AFC Portchester W 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Portishead W (draw refunded)

48%

AFC Portchester W (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Portishead W at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

AFC Portchester W away — creates 3.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Portishead W attack 3.00 + AFC Portchester W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

AFC Portchester W attack 3.67 + Portishead W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Portishead W scores more

39%

level

19%

AFC Portchester W scores more

42%

AFC Portchester W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AFC Portchester W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portishead W vs AFC Portchester W

AFC Portchester W beat Portishead W 5-1 in FA Women's Cup on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Bristol Road in Bristol.

Portishead W vs AFC Portchester W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Portishead W vs AFC Portchester W