Portimonense 3–1 Vitoria Setubal: Result & Stats

Portimonense

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Vitoria Setubal

12/14/2018

Primeira Liga · Round 13Estádio Municipal de Portimão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Portimonense38%

×Draw28%

Vitoria Setubal33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortimonenseExpected goals in this matchVitoria Setubal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.10

Portimonense

1.20

Vitoria Setubal

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 37 away

1.12

creates per match

0.89

1.31

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Portimonense

1.12

Vitoria Setubal

0.89

allows per match

Portimonense

1.31

Vitoria Setubal

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portimonense+0.00on par

Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portimonense ↓

Vitoria Setubal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Portimonense or draw

67%

Portimonense or Vitoria Setubal

72%

Draw or Vitoria Setubal

62%

Winning margin

Portimonense wins by 2+

16%

Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Portimonense 1+ goals

70%

Portimonense 2+ goals

34%

Portimonense 3+ goals

12%

Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals

67%

Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals

30%

Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Portimonense (draw refunded)

53%

Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portimonense at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 103 matches

Vitoria Setubal away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portimonense attack 1.12 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.89 + Portimonense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Portimonense scores more

38%

level

28%

Vitoria Setubal scores more

33%

Portimonense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Portimonense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff